DFS

The Masters DFS and One and Done Preview

Published

9 months ago

April 10, 2024

So a little backstory here. Last year my wife asks if we can go to visit her daughter in Austin for Easter. Of course I say “yes” before I look at a calendar. In 2023 Easter Sunday was Masters Sunday. Our 3 hour flight took 7 hours due to a severe storm in Texas. That storm wreaked havoc on the schedule at Augusta. Yesterday we arrived in Austin. Last night there was a fast moving thunderstorm with golf ball sized hail. The storm should reach Augusta tomorrow morning. My apologies for once again impacting the event. On another note, since I’m in a jurisdiction that prohibits sports wagering, I won’t be offering any betting analysis. If I’m not going to bet it I’m not going to make any suggestions.

We all know Augusta. Pristine conditions. Par 72, 7500+ yards. A classic tree lined parkland course with only 44 bunkers. Water is in play on only 4 holes. The rough is almost non-existent Ryegrass. The greens are firm, heavily sloped and usually run 12′-15′ on the Stimpmeter. All of the greens at Augusta have SubAir. The players who excel at ANGC tend to hit the ball long off the tee and have good approach games, especially with their mid to long irons. If you miss the firm greens on approach you’ll have a difficult time getting up and down. Par 5 scoring is paramount.

Before taking a look at which of the 89 golfers stand out based on the above criteria, let’s take a deeper look at the weather and how it very well might affect the first major of 2024. The storm is relatively fast moving, but brutal with torrential rain and high winds. As of 6pm Augusta time, rain is expected beginning at 10pm this evening with thunderstorms coming in at 6am continuing until noon. Rain should taper off and be done by 2pm. Today in Austin we had heavy winds from the back end of the storm. The forecasted wind in Augusta following the end of the rain calls for a range of 16mph – 18mph with stronger gusts. The winds will diminish Friday morning but increase again as the day goes on. Saturday morning we should see relatively calm conditions. The sun will be shining starting Thursday afternoon thru the remainder of the event.

Now that was a lot of information about the weather, but it is insanely important this week as you consider who to use in your DFS lineups and One and Dones. Last year we saw ANGC be very proactive with respect to making decisions based on the weather. I would be shocked if they didn’t push the first round start time back to the afternoon. What this means is that the golfers in the AM/PM wave will see high winds but soft conditions on Thursday and potentially relatively benign winds if they finish their second rounds on Saturday morning. The PM/AM wave will play the majority of their first two rounds on Friday with high winds and greens that will have dried out due to both the wind and the SubAir systems under each putting surface.

We had an earthquake in the Northeast last week. I did not have that on the 2024 bingo card. There are two Masters’ competitors whose wives are both pregnant with due dates in the next one to three weeks. Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns have both committed to walking off the course if their respective wife goes into labor. Trying to calculate the probability of labor at 33 to 35 weeks gestation was not on my DFS bingo card.

Taking all the above into account, I’ll be focusing on competitors who fit the criteria above, are in the AM/PM wave and are not expectant fathers. I’m also omitting both Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia as both are dealing with recent injuries. The defending champion, Jon Rahm along with Rory McIlroy lead a pool of 9. The other 7 are Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Victor Hovland, Xander Schauffle, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas. Given the pricing on Draft Kings, the list expands to include Russell Henley, Taylor Moore and Stephan Jaeger.

My One and Done this week requires me to select two participants. I’ve previously used McIlroy and Finau. My selections are Rahm and Matsuyama. I’m running with Rahm, Matsuyama, Finau, Henley, Moore and Jaeger for a total salary of $49,500 in my weekly Draft Kings entries.

Good luck to all and enjoy the best tournament of the year. Don’t forget to follow us on X!

DFS

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

Analyzing player form and making smarter wagers.

Published

2 weeks ago

December 11, 2024

Kelly Hodgeson

Golf is unpredictable—that’s what makes it exciting. But when it comes to betting on the game, we’re not just here to enjoy the chaos; we’re here to make smart, calculated wagers. One of the best ways to do that? Focus on player form. Who’s trending upward, and who’s struggling to find their game? Let’s take a closer look at how you can spot the “hot hands” and avoid wasting bets on players in a slump.

How to Spot Players on Fire

Sometimes, a golfer is so dialed in, you can almost feel their momentum through the screen. Here’s what to look for if you’re trying to back a hot player:

Top Finishes in Recent Events:
If a golfer has been consistently landing in the top 10 or even the top 20, that’s a strong indicator they’re in good form. Think about Viktor Hovland’s summer in 2023—week after week, he delivered, no matter the course or conditions.
Clutch Under Pressure:
A golfer who shines when the stakes are high is always worth a look. The final round on Sunday can be a pressure cooker, and some players thrive in that environment. Look for those who close out tournaments strong.
Key Stats Trending Up:
Numbers don’t lie. Strokes gained (SG) stats, like Tee-to-Green or Putting, can tell you a lot about a golfer’s current confidence and execution. If a player’s putting has been lights out recently, they’re likely feeling it.

Signs Someone’s Out of Sync

On the flip side, a player in poor form might not be easy to spot at first glance. The golf world loves a big name, but don’t let nostalgia fool you into betting on someone who’s struggling. Here’s how to spot the warning signs:

Missed Cuts Piling Up:
Missing one cut? It happens. Missing several in a row? That’s a red flag. It suggests inconsistency, lack of confidence, or struggles with key aspects of their game.
Declining Metrics:
Check the stats. If a golfer’s driving accuracy, GIR (greens in regulation), or putting numbers have taken a dive recently, there’s a good chance they’ll continue to underperform.
Course History Isn’t There:
Certain courses just don’t suit some players. Even if someone is playing well, a track that doesn’t match their style can trip them up. If they’ve struggled at a venue in the past, tread carefully.

A Betting Mindset for Player Form

Golf betting isn’t about throwing darts—it’s about making educated guesses with a little room for risk. Here are some ways to approach your picks when analyzing form:

Recent Performance Matters Most:
The past month or so gives the clearest picture of how a player is feeling and performing. A hot streak over the last four to six weeks carries more weight than long-term stats.
Course Fit Is Key:
If the course rewards big hitters and you’ve got a player who struggles off the tee, you might want to look elsewhere. Match the player’s strengths to the course’s demands.
Watch for Mid-Tournament Shifts:
Live betting can be a goldmine in golf. If a player is trending up during the first couple of rounds, there’s still time to jump on board before the odds catch up.

Who’s Hot Right Now

Ludvig Åberg:
The Swedish phenom has been unstoppable since turning pro, combining consistency with raw talent. He’s a solid bet for upcoming events.
Rory McIlroy:
Rory’s been showing why he’s one of the best, with his incredible driving accuracy and clutch putting keeping him near the top of every leaderboard.
Collin Morikawa:
After a rough patch, his iron play has returned to form, and he’s back in contention more often than not.

Who’s Not

Justin Thomas:
It’s tough to watch JT struggle, but the missed cuts and off-the-mark performances are piling up. Maybe next season?
Bryson DeChambeau:
While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, inconsistency has been his Achilles’ heel. Betting on him feels risky right now.
Rickie Fowler:
After a strong start to the year, Fowler’s form has cooled significantly. Proceed with caution if you’re backing him.

Betting on golf isn’t just about luck—it’s about understanding the trends, digging into the stats, and trusting what the data (and your gut) tell you. Identifying who’s hot and who’s not can make the difference between a winning bet and a lost wager. Stay sharp, trust your research, and remember: even the best players can surprise you. That’s the beauty of the game.

DFS

Strategies for Success in Fantasy Golf Leagues

Dominate your fantasy golf league with these expert strategies, from analyzing course fit to taking calculated risks.

Published

4 weeks ago

November 23, 2024

Kelly Hodgeson

Fantasy golf is more than just picking your favorite players—it’s a game of strategy, analysis, and the occasional calculated risk. If you’re ready to step up your game and dominate your league, here are some essential strategies that will have you climbing the leaderboard in no time.

1. Know Your League’s Scoring Rules

Every fantasy golf platform has its quirks. Some leagues prioritize birdies and eagles, while others emphasize consistency with pars. Understanding how points are allocated can guide your player selection and lineup decisions.

2. Analyze Course Fit

Not all players perform equally on every course. Some thrive on tight, strategic layouts, while others dominate on long, open tracks. Research each tournament’s course to see which stats—like driving accuracy, GIR (greens in regulation), or putting—are most relevant.

3. Diversify Your Lineup

While it’s tempting to stack your team with stars, a balanced lineup often performs better. Pair reliable players with under-the-radar picks who have the potential to outperform their rankings. A few dark horse selections could make all the difference.

4. Stay Informed on Player Trends

Golf is as much a mental game as it is physical, and even top players go through slumps. Monitor recent results, injury updates, and even off-course factors that might influence performance. A little research can go a long way in avoiding risky picks.

5. Leverage Fantasy Tools

Use projections, expert insights, and ownership percentages to your advantage. Platforms like Fantasy National Golf Club or PGA Tour stats pages offer detailed analysis that can help you make smarter decisions.

6. Capitalize on Tee Times and Weather

Weather conditions can play a huge role in golf performance. Wind, rain, and even time of day can create distinct advantages or challenges. Prioritize players with favorable tee times when the weather is expected to shift during the day.

7. Don’t Be Afraid to Take Risks

To win big, sometimes you need to take chances. If you’re behind in the standings, consider high-upside players who might not be heavily owned by others in your league. Riskier picks can give you the edge needed to climb the leaderboard.

8. Focus on Momentum

Golfers often carry momentum from one tournament to the next. Look for players coming off strong finishes, even if they’re not household names. Momentum can be a powerful tool in fantasy golf.

Final Drive

Winning a fantasy golf league requires a mix of knowledge, strategy, and a bit of luck. By understanding the nuances of scoring, player fit, and conditions, you can make smarter decisions and position yourself for success. So get out there, pick wisely, and enjoy the thrill of competing in your league. Victory awaits!