In the golf gambling/DFS world, the question this week was to “Scheffler or not to Scheffler.” Scottie opened the week at +260 in the betting market and was priced at $13k on DK’s. We haven’t seen numbers like this in quite some time. Obviously there was good reason. The Texas native, ranked #1 in the world by the Official World Golf Rankings, has won each of his last two starts on Tour, including making a tremendous comeback on Sunday at Sawgrass. I suppose the only argument you could make for fading him is that he shaved his beard at the beginning of the week. What did he do in his first round? He missed 7 greens but demonstrated short game wizardry and an ever improving flat stick as he only needed 25 putts to post a 5 under 65, good enough for second place at the end of the morning wave.
The Houston Open returned to the spring this season after several seasons on the PGA Tour’s “Fall Swing.” The event replaces the Dell Match Play Championship, a tournament that will be missed. Memorial Park GC (a municipal course) plays 7400 yards to a par 70. For the second week in a row, there are 5 par 3’s but this week only 3 par 5’s. Water comes into play on only 4 holes and the course has the fewest bunkers on Tour (21!). Rough is non-existent. Poa trivialis greens are firm with steep runoffs. Texas winds are the course’s real defense, although for the first two rounds winds will only pick up Friday afternoon.
Taking the expected winds into account, I limited the pool of players i considered using in one and done and DFS to the golfers playing in the PM/AM wave. This placed me in the “Not Scheffler” camp. The stats I focused upon this week were Driving Distance, SG TtG, SG App, SG App (175-200), SG App (200-225), Bogey Avoidance, Difficult Courses, SG ARG.
There are multiple factors to consider when making a “one and done” selection. Some participants follow the “best available player” strategy. With the “signature” events and their bloated purses, you must be a little more careful with whom you use at “normal” events. Taking into consideration the PM/AM wave advantage and my model, this week’s selection is Jason Day. Hopefully he doesn’t pull a “Homa” on me and make the cut on the number and phone it in on the weekend.
My DFS selections have been less than sterling this season, but using the model above I came up with Day, Alex Noren, Patrick Rodgers, Kurt Kitayama, Davis Thompson and Daniel Berger. I fully expect 3 of the 6 to miss the cut.
