Valero Texas Open

The week prior to the Masters usually finds the PGA Tour with a weak field as players teeing it up at Augusta take the extra time to prepare. Not this season. A combination of Augusta National once again hosting their 5th Annual Women’s Amateur and the $9,200,000.00 total purse led a number of top competitors to decide to tee it up at TPC San Antonio in this full field event. Rory McIlroy leads a field featuring 11 of the top ranked golfers in the world.

TPC San Antonio plays approximately 7,400 yards as a par 72. It is a unique track in that it is entirely average giving no historical advantage to any specific type of golfer. 7,400 would seem to favor the bombers especially given the almost non-existent rough. The tree lined fairways, however, make accuracy almost as important as length off the tee. Success on the course relies on approach play. The length of the par 4’s and par 5’s creates a scenario where the approaches from less than 100 yards and more than 200 yards exceed the Tour averages. Other approaches average below percentages found the rest of the season. Greens are Poa Trivialis defended by large and unusually shaped bunkers. Two holes share a green separated by a bunker twice the size of the 17th green at TPC Sawgrass. The “Donut Hole” par 3 16th features a large green with a bunker directly in the middle.

Looking at golfers who could have success this week in One and Done, DFS and betting, I ran my model focusing on Shots Gained T2G, SG App, SG ArG and Course History. Not shockingly, McIlroy (fresh off a quick lesson from Butch Harmon) leads the projected outcome. Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Colin Morikawa, Corey Connors (the 2019 and 2023 Champion), Byeong Hun An and Max Homa comprise my top seven. Keep in mind that overnight Yahoo Japan reported that Matsuyama is dealing with a previously undisclosed back injury, so take that into consideration.

Weather should not be an issue this week with Sunday having a 35% of rain. The PM/AM wave should have a slight advantage with respect to the Texas wind, but it isn’t significant.

My One and Done this week is An. My initial selection was Matsuyama, but as mentioned above I’m concerned enough about his back injury and I went with my second choice in An. The team I went with for the weekly DFS includes An, Aberg, Alex Noren, Harris English, New Jersey native Max Greyserman, and Matias Schmid. I can almost guarantee you now that at least one of the them will miss the cut.