So a little backstory here. Last year my wife asks if we can go to visit her daughter in Austin for Easter. Of course I say “yes” before I look at a calendar. In 2023 Easter Sunday was Masters Sunday. Our 3 hour flight took 7 hours due to a severe storm in Texas. That storm wreaked havoc on the schedule at Augusta. Yesterday we arrived in Austin. Last night there was a fast moving thunderstorm with golf ball sized hail. The storm should reach Augusta tomorrow morning. My apologies for once again impacting the event. On another note, since I’m in a jurisdiction that prohibits sports wagering, I won’t be offering any betting analysis. If I’m not going to bet it I’m not going to make any suggestions.
We all know Augusta. Pristine conditions. Par 72, 7500+ yards. A classic tree lined parkland course with only 44 bunkers. Water is in play on only 4 holes. The rough is almost non-existent Ryegrass. The greens are firm, heavily sloped and usually run 12′-15′ on the Stimpmeter. All of the greens at Augusta have SubAir. The players who excel at ANGC tend to hit the ball long off the tee and have good approach games, especially with their mid to long irons. If you miss the firm greens on approach you’ll have a difficult time getting up and down. Par 5 scoring is paramount.
Before taking a look at which of the 89 golfers stand out based on the above criteria, let’s take a deeper look at the weather and how it very well might affect the first major of 2024. The storm is relatively fast moving, but brutal with torrential rain and high winds. As of 6pm Augusta time, rain is expected beginning at 10pm this evening with thunderstorms coming in at 6am continuing until noon. Rain should taper off and be done by 2pm. Today in Austin we had heavy winds from the back end of the storm. The forecasted wind in Augusta following the end of the rain calls for a range of 16mph – 18mph with stronger gusts. The winds will diminish Friday morning but increase again as the day goes on. Saturday morning we should see relatively calm conditions. The sun will be shining starting Thursday afternoon thru the remainder of the event.
Now that was a lot of information about the weather, but it is insanely important this week as you consider who to use in your DFS lineups and One and Dones. Last year we saw ANGC be very proactive with respect to making decisions based on the weather. I would be shocked if they didn’t push the first round start time back to the afternoon. What this means is that the golfers in the AM/PM wave will see high winds but soft conditions on Thursday and potentially relatively benign winds if they finish their second rounds on Saturday morning. The PM/AM wave will play the majority of their first two rounds on Friday with high winds and greens that will have dried out due to both the wind and the SubAir systems under each putting surface.
We had an earthquake in the Northeast last week. I did not have that on the 2024 bingo card. There are two Masters’ competitors whose wives are both pregnant with due dates in the next one to three weeks. Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns have both committed to walking off the course if their respective wife goes into labor. Trying to calculate the probability of labor at 33 to 35 weeks gestation was not on my DFS bingo card.
Taking all the above into account, I’ll be focusing on competitors who fit the criteria above, are in the AM/PM wave and are not expectant fathers. I’m also omitting both Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia as both are dealing with recent injuries. The defending champion, Jon Rahm along with Rory McIlroy lead a pool of 9. The other 7 are Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Victor Hovland, Xander Schauffle, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas. Given the pricing on Draft Kings, the list expands to include Russell Henley, Taylor Moore and Stephan Jaeger.
My One and Done this week requires me to select two participants. I’ve previously used McIlroy and Finau. My selections are Rahm and Matsuyama. I’m running with Rahm, Matsuyama, Finau, Henley, Moore and Jaeger for a total salary of $49,500 in my weekly Draft Kings entries.
Good luck to all and enjoy the best tournament of the year. Don’t forget to follow us on X!
